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Adaptive Risk

FORWARD_PAPER

Uncertainty shrinkage and tactical short downside hedging.

Version: 3.7.2•Research ID: FREQAI_V3_7_S2•Timeframe: 4h•Risk: Conservative
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Forward Untouched Holdout

OOS Verifiable
Net Return:+5.40%
Max Drawdown:-1.15%
Completed Trades:62 trades
Sharpe / Sortino:2.10 / 5.80

Friction basis: 38.0 bps roundtrip canonical friction

Canonical Development History

1.31 Yrs Universe
Historical Return:+68.50% (Full) / +42.10% (OOS)
Historical Max DD:-2.10%
Completed Trades:94 trades
Historical Sharpe:5.45

Artifact hash verified: bcc5da6b8ac51877...

Execution Telemetry & Signals

ETH/USDT 4hModel: Adaptive RiskCLOSED: tactical_hedge_exitID: TR-ADAP-8949

Execution telemetry & dynamic candle chart for selected trade (2026-10-10 18:20) • SHORT • Net PnL: +2.82% ($+$112.80)

Hover across candles to inspect telemetry
$2320$2375$2431$2487$2542SHORT Entry: $2,480Exit Rate: $2,410 (+2.82%)Stoploss Limit: $2604 (-5.0%)ENTRY SHORTEXIT (+2.8%)
Entry ($2,480)Exit ($2,410)Stoploss Limit ($2604)
Duration: 14h • Model: Adaptive Risk

Public Model Transparency & Mechanics

What it Trades & Universe

Applies conformal prediction bounds to compress position exposure during volatility and initiates tactical short hedges during market stress regimes.

Methodology & Gating

Conformal prediction bounds, dynamic position compression, volatility-scaled risk sizing, and tactical short hedging.

Preferred Market Regime

Volatile or declining regimes with tactical short hedging.

Underperformance Conditions

Strong monotonic bull runs where aggressive short hedging dampens upside.